---

---

Nigeria: Economic Meltdown - New Finance Minister Calls for Prayers

Lucky Fiakpa

5 January 2009

---

Nigerians are deeply religious people and with the economic meltdown hitting hard on the people, there could be no better time to seek divine intervention as the new Finance Minister now calls for prayers to stir the economic ship successfully, Lucky Fiakpa writes

Dr. Mansur Muhtar, former Director General of the Debt Management Office, DMO, and new Finance Minister, no doubt has a rich credential. A renowned Economist who is coming to the ministerial job from Africa Development Bank (ADB), Muhtar is well equipped for the job. Before coming to DMO, he was a Senior Economist with the African Region of the World Bank. At DMO, he was first Director of Portfolio Management and Strategy. As DG DMO when Prof. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala held the saddle as Finance Minister, Muhtar was generally managing Nigeria's debt portfolio and played a major role in the negotiations that led to Nigeria's exit from Paris and London Clubs of creditors.

Of course during that period Nigeria had so much money to play with. That was when international oil price hovered in the neighbourhood of $100 per barrel. Things were much easier then and Muhtar seems to realize this.

At a reception in his honour by the people of Dambatta, held at the palace of the District Head of Dambatta, Sarkin Dan Kano, Dr Mukhtar Adnan, Muhtar admitted that his appointment is a challenge in view of the current world economic meltdown, and called on Nigerians to put all hands on deck to improve the country's economy. He also called on Nigerians to assist with prayers towards curbing the economic meltdown.

Surely, the Finance Minister would need a whole load of prayers to manage the economy successfully. He is coming in at a time the economy is at its lowest ebb in more than a decade. The 2009 budget benchmarked at crude oil price of $45 per barrel is already wobbling with oil prices below the benchmark price. There are fears it could stay in the $30 pb neighbourhood for a good part of this year, which could spell untold hardship for the Nigerian economy.

The excess crude oil account created to serve as a buffer for period such as this had since been depleted. This therefore leaves the various tiers of government at the mercy of the harsh economic realities of the day.

Oil prices remained near three-year lows as the slowdown in United States and Chinese economies continues to hurt demand for crude, especially in the U.S. which serves as the major oil market for Nigeria.

Muhtar is also assuming office to manage a budget many have written off as dead on arrival given the poor performance of crude oil in the international market. The budget also has a huge deficit component the source of its financing looks blurred. The deficit announced in the budget leaves considerable room for uncertainty. While the government announced a recall of $200 million from the Nigeria Trust Fund Account of the African Development Bank (ADB) and a bond issue of a Naira denominated $500 million, other aspects of the deficits are quite unclear, raising speculations as to the extent of borrowing.

The revenue expected from signature bonuses and proceeds from privatization are not clear and were not stated. As the government may have made projections based on certain parameters, it is likely that borrowing will be greater than expected if the projections are not met. So as government deficits grow, so also do the growth risks in the economy.

Again, Muhtar is coming into office at a time the naira, the nation's currency is heading for the canvass and at a dashing speed. The greatest force against the strength of the naira is the uncertainty of how low oil price could go and the implications it would have on balance of trade and the level of foreign reserves. It is thought that the greatest pressure on the naira will emanate from continuous worsening of the terms of trade and the threat to macroeconomic growth through debt and inflation.

The foreign exchange market, which for almost a year now has been stable, suddenly lost ground against major traded currency last month and has not been able to recover since then. The CBN effort to stem the market failed to achieve set objective as the naira continued its downwards plunge against the United States dollar and other traded currencies. The naira closed at N135.5 per dollar, down from N132.3 the previous week as banks and other authorised dealers scrambled for the greenback to meet customer obligations in an increasingly tight market.

Depreciation of the Naira

After some tight lips as to the reason behind the falling value of the naira, the CBN governor, Prof. Chukwuma Soludo, finally admitted that the depreciation was at the instance of the government. He said the devaluation of the naira is a deliberate and strategic move to shore up the nation's economy and slow down the depletion of the nation's foreign reserve put at $57 billion last month, amid falling crude oil prices.

The CBN strategy is to enable Nigeria to maintain a healthy balance of payment position through a constriction of imports, though some analysts have said that the devaluation is to allow government pay its bills. This further drove the naira value aground as it hit an exchange rate of N140 to the dollar at the parallel market.

Apparently unable to sustain the huge demand for forex amidst dwindling supply of dollar occasioned as a result of depleting reserves caused by poor oil revenues, the government on Monday, December 22, 2008 announced the closure of the foreign exchange market and it is expected to open today January 5, 2009.

In a circular, announcing the closure and sent to authorised dealers last month, the CBN's Acting Director, Trade and Exchange, Mr. B Musa, said the foreign exchange auction market, otherwise known as Wholesale Dutch Auction System, would be closed "in consideration of the Christmas and New Year holidays."

The closure of the official foreign exchange, which many considered to be an unusual move, highlighted the scarcity of forex following the rationalisation of banks' offshore credit lines and the refusal of the Central Bank of Nigeria to fill the gap.

However, the new Minister of Finance believes the Federal Government is in a position to tackle the present global economic trend, and called on everybody to support the government's drive to find solution to the problem. He said the Federal Government will collaborate with the 36 governors to transform the country's economy in a way that it would improve the standards of living of the people, as they are closer to the grassroots.

He expressed appreciation to President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua for giving him the opportunity to serve, and assured of his total commitment to promoting the economy.

Not a few sector of the economy will celebrate if the government could find solution to the economic meltdown, except that the indices hardly support an administration on the path of fixing the economy.

Burden of Manufacturers

The manufacturing sector already burdened with huge stock of unplanned inventory is now facing rising lending rates. From an average of 17 per cent for a better part of last year, the rates hit an average of 25 per cent in the last quarter of 2008.

Alhaji Bashir Borodo, the President of the Manufacturing Association of Nigeria, MAN, would want the CBN to do something to firm the downwards movement of the naira fast in other to save manufacturers another round of agonising moment. He believes the current operating environment is bad enough and a further fall in the value of the naira, could spell disaster for the sector.

In a chat with Financial Vanguard, the MAN President said the decline in the value of the Nigerian currency against the dollar in the foreign exchange market will have an adverse effect on the cost of production in two ways. First, he said, cost of imported raw materials will rise which will further hike cost of production and of course, lead to increase in general price level across the country.

He also believes the falling value of the naira if not arrested could also lead to increase in interest rates. Put differently, as more naira is generated to buy dollar in the foreign exchange market, what would be left for lending for businesses would be less, which will in turn push up the lending rates by banks.

Read comments. Write your own.

---