Nairobi Star (Nairobi)
Maina Kiai
17 September 2008
column
This has been one of the tougher weeks for Barack Obama since the process started. The polls show that McCain is benefiting most from the “convention bounce” and is leading in the polls. Imitation being the highest form of flattery, he has paid Obama the utmost tribute by trying to take over Obama’s theme of “change” rather than focus on experience and stability which is what would be expected since he is from President Bush’s party.
And the polls show that this could be working. He has shoved upfront his running mate Sarah Palin who oozes way more charisma than he does and who has helped solidify the “base”, or the core of his supporters without whose enthusiasm he can kiss the election goodbye. But its still 7 long weeks to go to the election and lots of time for someone to make a major gaffe, or something major to come out that stifles either candidate.
Obama’s task is hard, and the weeks after the Republican convention have made it harder for him as the Republican base found a new flirtation with Sarah Palin: she excites them for her novelty and “newness” as much as Obama excited the Democratic base. She has been hogging the news much because of her new found celebrity status as a young, charismatic, attractive, eloquent and mother and politician.
Obama also has to contend with what is now known as the “Bradley Effect” which is named after former Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley who in 1982 was projected in opinion polls to be winning the election to be the first black Governor of California, but ended up losing, basically suggesting that people will lie in polls, offering what their minds think, but when they get into the booth to cast the vote, they vote with their hearts or gut. This is what also happened to David Dinkins running for Mayor of New York City whose vote victory was projected to be 18 percentage points but ended winning by only two. In essence, what this means for the Obama campaign is that as they look at the polls they should always subtract at least seven percent as part of the Bradley Effect.
But on the other hand, they are some major positives since the 1980s. The first is that the state of Massachusetts elected their first black governor in 2006, in a state that is less than 10 percent black. That is major progress and shows some of the promise that is there.
As for DC where I am based, it’s all Obama-land. There are stickers and posters on cars, on windows and on doors. (None on lamp-posts or walls as we often do….) I have only seen 2 bumper-stickers for McCain in DC and those on cars with Virginia license plates where there will be a battle-royal as it is seen as a swing state.
And so this week I focus on Virginia and getting out of DC to see how the other America thinks and feels. It should be interesting…
Scenes from DC:
For all of those who think that having kiosks in the streets of Nairobi mars the beauty of the city, they should visit Washington DC. Here, kiosks are allowed on certain streets, and regulated. They pay taxes and fees to be where they are and offer great services to many people who need a snack, water, fruit, soda or hot-dog as they do their work. They sell sun-glasses, scarves; umbrellas, t-shirts and other stuff if one needs to do quick shopping or the heavens open with rain without warning. They are the way to go. And this keeps lots of the new immigrants busy and earning. The African immigrants sell watches and other gadgets from China. Koreans sell clothes and umbrellas. Middle-eastern immigrants sell hot-dogs and food. It makes life easier for all around and by regulating them security in the neighborhoods and on the streets is enhanced. Something here, perhaps for Musalia and Majiwa to think about for Nairobi?
And then I witnessed one of the better aspects of US governance life: a protest and demonstration right outside the White House by a group supporting what they called the Cuban Five. Small demonstration with loudspeakers blaring, right in front of Bush’s home. Lots of police there when I passed by, outnumbering the protesters but leaving them alone as part of freedom of expression…. Now what would I give for this to return to Kenya as it was in 2003 and 2004 before Commissioner Ali decided that whether one has followed the law or not in informing the police about intended protest, unless Ali himself approves of the protest (or your protest is in favor of Kibaki) he will break the law and stop anyone from protesting? And thought he breaks the law with impunity as he has done on so many other fronts he keeps his job showing us that in Kenya its power rather than law that matters.
I do like the fact that in this city as in many other urban societies, the regulators and leaders always remember to reserve space and parks for ordinary people to relax, rest, meet and talk with each other for free. There are numerous parks where people play chess on tables made specifically for that; they walk their dogs; they sit and pray, they sit and bask in the sun; they read and otherwise just be. We really have just Uhuru Park for that in Nairobi but this is something again that as we plan for Vision 2030 we should include. For people living in high density areas where there is so little grass and so few trees, having easy access to such green places may help stave off serious depression and bring some calm and peace.
More next week…
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